Who wins Arizona?
Odds of Winning
We expect Joe Biden to win Arizona by 1.78%.
Arizona is rated as Pure Tossup.
Winning Odds Over Time
Popular Vote Over Time
Registering new voters is a key part of winning elections.
Here's a look at where Democrats and Republicans have registered new voters since the 2016 election:
Since the 2016 election,
Democrats have registered 185,919 new voters,
Republicans have registered 130,826 new voters and
Independents have registered 30,093 new voters.
Overall, Democrats have registered the most new voters.
Breaking down who we expect will show up on election day by demographics.
Every state has a unique demographic composition. See how we expect it to change from 2016 to 2020:
We expect significant demographic swings from 2016 to 2020:
White voters: from 75% to 74%
Hispanic/Latino voters: from 15% to 18%
We expect the partisan composition to become 3% more Democratic:
39% Independent, 31% Republican and 30% Democrat,
Turnout isn't the only thing we expect will change from 2016 to 2020.
How each demographic group will vote is also expected to change, explore those changes here:
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