the forecast is currently frozen and is not being updated with new data
The live model will return Monday, July 13, 2020 at 8:00AM EST
278 electoral votes
125 electoral votes
Joe Biden +6.69%
We believe Joe Biden has a 81.09% chance
of winning the Electoral College
How the race has changed over time
How the popular vote breaks down
To download our States Winning Odds in CSV format, click here.
For our forecast, each precinct in the United States is studied to determine its demographic composition. We then use national and state polling to project how each demographic subgroup will vote. We use correlation algorithms to characterize each demographic subgroup, given their regional differences (i.e White voters in northeastern Mississippi don't vote the same way as White voters in northeastern Minnesota).
To determine turnout in each precinct or county, we use public and internal data from voter registration files, polling, phone banks and community canvassing and use the correlation algorithms to project that data on similar precincts.
The model then averages out the data by demographic subgroup to work out any data or polling anomalies and builds a county projection, which then builds out a State projection. The model projects popular vote totals, not percentages.
The closer we get to election day, the more data we'll have and the higher our confidence level will be. Eventually, we will launch a feature which will allow you to search and see how any neighborhood/precinct is expected to vote. If you are a campaign who wants access to this data for targeting purposes, please email us at