Presidential election

Last Update: July 10, 2020

the forecast is currently frozen and is not being updated with new data

The live model will return Monday, July 13, 2020 at 8:00AM EST

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

81.1%

278 electoral votes

125 electoral votes

18.8%

%

Popular Vote

71,439,053 votes

Joe Biden +6.69%

We believe Joe Biden has a 81.09% chance

of winning the Electoral College

51.66%

62,186,091  votes

44.97%

 4,668,183 votes

3.38%

Winning Odds

How the race has changed over time

Popular Vote

Winning Odds

How the popular vote breaks down

To download our States Winning Odds in CSV format, click here.

Forecast Methodology

For our forecast, each precinct in the United States is studied to determine its demographic composition. We then use national and state polling to project how each demographic subgroup will vote. We use correlation algorithms to characterize each demographic subgroup, given their regional differences (i.e White voters in northeastern Mississippi don't vote the same way as White voters in northeastern Minnesota).

 

To determine turnout in each precinct or county, we use public and internal data from voter registration files, polling, phone banks and community canvassing and use the correlation algorithms to project that data on similar precincts.

 

The model then averages out the data by demographic subgroup to work out any data or polling anomalies and builds a county projection, which then builds out a State projection. The model projects popular vote totals, not percentages.

The closer we get to election day, the more data we'll have and the higher our confidence level will be. Eventually, we will launch a feature which will allow you to search and see how any neighborhood/precinct is expected to vote. If you are a campaign who wants access to this data for targeting purposes, please email us at 2020@OurProgress.org

Data visualization by amcharts - check them out!