Presidential election

Last Update: May 1, 2020

Hover over State to see projection

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

278

169

%

We believe Donald Trump will get 46.27% of the vote, or 62,147,440 votes on average

We believe Joe Biden will win the popular vote by a margin of 6.08%

On June 1st we will launch our State-by-State drill-downs.

These will include State popular vote projections, polls, demographic breakdowns and county-level data.

Rating Methodology

​

As our full model beings taking shape, our state rating system is rather straightforward.

​

our ratings, safe-likely-favored-tossup, are set based on the expected margin of victory:

Over 10% - will certainly win

​

between 5% and 10% - Will likely win

​

between 2.5% and 5% - slightly favored

​

between 0% and 2.5% - pure tossup

​

​

~

​

​

Our model is based on a bottom-up approach where each precinct is studied to determine the demographic makeshift and vote totals expected for each candidate. We then use national and state polling to determine the strength of each candidate with each demographic - like race, gender, education etc. The model then automatically builds out a state projection based on a weighed average to work out any polling anomalies.

​

As we get closer to election day, we will be using live data from phone banks and canvassing to project turnout in certain precincts around the country, the model will then be updating live and you'll be able to see how your neighborhood and county and projected to vote.

​

Data visualization by amcharts - check them out!