We believe Barack Obama has a 99.73% chance of winning the Electoral College
We believe Barack Obama will get 54.46% of the vote, or 75,228,115 votes on average
We believe Donald Trump will get 43.37% of the vote, or 59,905,006 votes on average
Barack Obama Popular Vote
Donald Trump Popular Vote
We believe Barack Obama will win the popular vote by a margin of 11.09%
270 Electoral Votes needed to win
States Needed To Win
Explore the States Barack Obama needs to carry to win the Electoral College
As our full model beings taking shape, our state rating system is rather straightforward.
our ratings, safe-likely-favored-tossup, are set based on the expected margin of victory:
Over 10% - will certainly win
between 5% and 10% - Will likely win
between 2.5% and 5% - slightly favored
between 0% and 2.5% - pure tossup
Our model is based on a bottom-up approach where each precinct is studied to determine the demographic makeshift and vote totals expected for each candidate. We then use national and state polling to determine the strength of each candidate with each demographic - like race, gender, education etc. The model then automatically builds out a state projection based on a weighed average to work out any polling anomalies.
As we get closer to election day, we will be using live data from phone banks and canvassing to project turnout in certain precincts around the country, the model will then be updating live and you'll be able to see how your neighborhood and county and projected to vote.