Hypothetical Presidential election

The model is static and is no longer live.

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

330

115

Winning Odds

We believe Barack Obama has a 99.73% chance of winning the Electoral College

%

We believe Barack Obama will get 54.46% of the vote, or 75,228,115 votes on average

We believe Donald Trump will get 43.37% of  the vote, or 59,905,006 votes on average

Barack Obama Popular Vote

Donald Trump Popular Vote

tossup: 93

270 Electoral Votes needed to win

States Needed To Win

Explore the States Barack Obama needs to carry to win the Electoral College

Ratings Methodology

As our full model beings taking shape, our state rating system is rather straightforward.

our ratings, safe-likely-favored-tossup, are set based on the expected margin of victory:

 

Over 10% - will certainly win

between 5% and 10% - Will likely win

between 2.5% and 5% - slightly favored

between 0% and 2.5% - pure tossup

~

Our model is based on a bottom-up approach where each precinct is studied to determine the demographic makeshift and vote totals expected for each candidate. We then use national and state polling to determine the strength of each candidate with each demographic - like race, gender, education etc. The model then automatically builds out a state projection based on a weighed average to work out any polling anomalies.

As we get closer to election day, we will be using live data from phone banks and canvassing to project turnout in certain precincts around the country, the model will then be updating live and you'll be able to see how your neighborhood and county and projected to vote.

Data visualization by amcharts - check them out!