Who wins Iowa?
Odds of Winning
We expect Donald Trump to win Iowa by 1.49%.
Iowa is rated as Pure Tossup.
Winning Odds Over Time
Popular Vote Over Time
Registering new voters is a key part of winning elections.
Here's a look at where Democrats and Republicans have registered new voters since the 2016 election:
Since the 2016 election,
Democrats have registered 39,711 new voters,
Republicans have lost 2,209 registered voters and
Independents have lost 77,960 registered voters.
Overall, Democrats have registered the most new voters.
Breaking down who we expect will show up on election day by demographics.
Every state has a unique demographic composition. See how we expect it to change from 2016 to 2020:
We expect mild demographic swings from 2016 to 2020:
White voters: from 90% to 89%
Hispanic/Latino voters: from 5% to 6%
We expect the partisan composition to become 3% more Democratic:
35% Independent, 33% Republican and 32% Democrat,
Turnout isn't the only thing we expect will change from 2016 to 2020.
How each demographic group will vote is also expected to change, explore those changes here:
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