Who wins Pennsylvania?
Odds of Winning
We expect Joe Biden to win Pennsylvania by 5.01%.
Pennsylvania is rated as Likely Biden.
Winning Odds Over Time
Popular Vote Over Time
Registering new voters is a key part of winning elections.
Here's a look at where Democrats and Republicans have registered new voters since the 2016 election:
Since the 2016 election,
Independents have registered 258,713 new voters,
Republicans have registered 4,422 new voters and
Democrats have lost 202,878 registered voters.
Overall, Independents have registered the most new voters.
Breaking down who we expect will show up on election day by demographics.
Every state has a unique demographic composition. See how we expect it to change from 2016 to 2020:
We expect significant demographic swings from 2016 to 2020:
White voters: from 81% to 80%
African-American voters: from 10% to 11%
We expect the partisan composition to become 2% more Republican:
41% Democrat, 39% Republican and 21% Independent
Turnout isn't the only thing we expect will change from 2016 to 2020.
How each demographic group will vote is also expected to change, explore those changes here:
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