2020 US Senate Election

Last Update: August 3, 2020

54.5%

45.5%

Winning Odds Over Time

Democrats are slightly favored to gain a majority.

Most Recent Polls

State                   Pollster                                     Date

Forecast Methodology

For our forecast, each precinct in the United States is studied to determine its demographic composition. We then use national and state polling to project how each demographic subgroup will vote. We use correlation algorithms to characterize each demographic subgroup, given their regional differences (i.e White voters in northeastern Mississippi don't vote the same way as White voters in northeastern Minnesota).

 

To determine turnout in each precinct or county, we use public and internal data from voter registration files, polling, phone banks and community canvassing and use the correlation algorithms to project that data on similar precincts.

 

The model then averages out the data by demographic subgroup to work out any data or polling anomalies and builds a county projection, which then builds out a State projection. The model projects popular vote totals, not percentages.

The closer we get to election day, the more data we'll have and the higher our confidence level will be. Eventually, we will launch a feature which will allow you to search and see how any neighborhood/precinct is expected to vote. If you are a campaign who wants access to this data for targeting purposes, please email us at 2020@OurProgress.org

Data visualization by amcharts - check them out!