Who wins Texas?
Odds of Winning
We expect Donald Trump to win Texas by 1.85%.
Texas is rated as Pure Tossup.
Winning Odds Over Time
Popular Vote Over Time
Registering new voters is a key part of winning elections.
Here's a look at where Democrats and Republicans have registered new voters since the 2016 election:
Unfortunately, Texas voters don't register with a political party.
However, based on county and state party data, we know that there has been a 4% shift in the partisan composition of registered voters in favor of the Democratic Party since the 2016 Presidential election.
Breaking down who we expect will show up on election day by demographics.
Every state has a unique demographic composition. See how we expect it to change from 2016 to 2020:
We expect significant demographic swings from 2016 to 2020:
White voters: from 57% to 55%
Hispanic/Latino voters: from 24% to 26%
African-American voters: from 11% to 12%
We expect the partisan composition to become 3% more Democratic:
36% Republican, 34% Independent and 30% Democrat,
Turnout isn't the only thing we expect will change from 2016 to 2020.
How each demographic group will vote is also expected to change, explore those changes here:
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