Who wins Texas?

47.19% 

52.71% 

Joe Biden

4,576,677

47.51%

Donald Trump

4,754,972

49.36%

Odds of Winning

We expect Donald Trump to win Texas by 1.85%.

Texas is rated as Pure Tossup.

Winning Odds Over Time

Popular Vote Over Time

  • Voter Registration

Registering new voters is a key part of winning elections.

 

Here's a look at where Democrats and Republicans have registered new voters since the 2016 election:

Unfortunately, Texas voters don't register with a political party.

However, based on county and state party data, we know that there has been a 4% shift in the partisan composition of registered voters in favor of the Democratic Party since the 2016 Presidential election. 

  • Turnout Demographics

<< 2016     2020 >>

Breaking down who we expect will show up on election day by demographics.

Every state has a unique demographic composition. See how we expect it to change from 2016 to 2020: 

We expect significant demographic swings from 2016 to 2020:

White voters: from 57% to 55%

Hispanic/Latino voters: from 24% to 26%

African-American voters: from 11% to 12%

We expect the partisan composition to become 3% more Democratic:

36% Republican, 34% Independent and 30% Democrat,

  • Turnout Demographics

Turnout isn't the only thing we expect will change from 2016 to 2020.

How each demographic group will vote is also expected to change, explore those changes here:

<< 2016           2020 >>

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