Who wins Virginia?



Joe Biden



Donald Trump



Odds of Winning

We expect Joe Biden to win Virginia by 9.58%.

Virginia is rated as Likely Biden.

Winning Odds Over Time

Popular Vote Over Time

  • Voter Registration

Registering new voters is a key part of winning elections.


Here's a look at where Democrats and Republicans have registered new voters since the 2016 election:

Unfortunately, Virginia voters don't register with a political party.

However, based on county and state party data, we know that there has been a 5% shift in the partisan composition of registered voters in favor of the Democratic Party since the 2016 Presidential election. 

  • Turnout Demographics

Breaking down who we expect will show up on election day by demographics.

Every state has a unique demographic composition. See how we expect it to change from 2016 to 2020: 

We expect mild demographic swings from 2016 to 2020:

White voters: from 67% to 66%

African-American voters: from 21% to 22%

Hispanic/Latino voters: from 6% to 7%

We expect the partisan composition to be 3% more Democratic:

41% Democrat, 31% Republican and 27% Independent.

<< 2016      2020 >>

  • Turnout Demographics

Turnout isn't the only thing we expect will change from 2016 to 2020.

How each demographic group will vote is also expected to change, explore those changes here:

<< 2016           2020 >>

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